A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
